CHA2DS2-VA and non-CHA2DS2-VA components as predictors of mortality after cavotricuspid isthmus ablation: a clinical tool for long-term risk stratification - Summary - MDSpire

Evaluating CHA2DS2-VA and Non-CHA2DS2-VA Factors as Indicators of Mortality Following Cavotricuspid Isthmus Ablation: A Tool for Long-Term Risk Assessment

  • By

  • Kamilla Luca Dávid

  • Előd János Zsigmond

  • Manuella Bogdan

  • Balázs Polgár

  • Nikolett Vigh

  • Zalán Gulyás

  • Judit Papp

  • Emese Tóth-Zsámboki

  • Gábor Zoltán Duray

  • July 20, 2026

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Objective:

To evaluate the association between the CHA₂DS₂-VA score, its individual components, and non-CHA₂DS₂-VA comorbidities with all-cause mortality following CTI ablation for typical AFL.

Approach:
  • Study Design: Retrospective analysis of clinical and mortality data from 249 patients who underwent successful CTI ablation between July 2017 and December 2021.
  • Statistical Analysis: Utilized Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox regression, and time-dependent ROC analyses to evaluate predictors of all-cause mortality.
Key Findings:
  • 27% of patients died during a mean follow-up of 1771 ± 635 days.
  • Mortality increased with higher CHA₂DS₂-VA scores; a score ≥3 was optimal for mortality prediction.
  • Annual mortality rates were 1.4% for scores <3 and 9.9% for scores ≥3 (p < 0.001).
  • CHA₂DS₂-VA score showed good discriminative ability (c-index = 0.73).
  • CHA₂DS₂-VA score was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.26 -1.75, p < 0.001).
  • Pulmonary disease and obstructive sleep apnoea independently predicted adverse long-term survival.
Interpretation:

Limitations:
  • Retrospective design may introduce bias.
  • Single-center study limits generalizability.
  • Potential confounding factors not accounted for.
Conclusion:

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