Study Maps US States Most Vulnerable to Flu

Machine learning analysis identifies 11 jurisdictions—including the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii—with the highest vulnerability to influenza-like illness.

By
Kathryn Wighton
March 10, 2026
3 min

MDSpire News

Objective:

To estimate state-level vulnerability to influenza-like illness (ILI) in the US during 2022 using socio-economic and health indicators.

Approach:

Key Findings:

The District of Columbia was identified as the most vulnerable jurisdiction.
11 jurisdictions were classified with very high vulnerability, including Massachusetts, Hawaii, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, and Arizona.
Key indicators influencing vulnerability included recent migration, lack of health insurance, adult vaccination rates, and population age.

Interpretation:

Different factors influenced vulnerability across jurisdictions, with urban areas showing higher vulnerability linked to density and mobility, while rural areas were affected by demographic and economic factors such as older populations and poverty levels.

Limitations:

Analysis relied on state-level data, which may obscure intra-state variations and limit model performance.
Sample size was limited to about 50 jurisdictions, which may affect the generalizability of the findings.

Conclusion:

The findings highlight the necessity for tailored public health measures to address specific vulnerabilities, improve health care access, and tackle gender-specific health care disparities.