Impacts of the 2021 child tax credit advance monthly payments on birth outcomes in the United States: a natural experiment - Summary - MDSpire

Impacts of the 2021 child tax credit advance monthly payments on birth outcomes in the United States: a natural experiment

  • By

  • Claire E Margerison

  • Natasha V Pilkauskas

  • Grace Joachim

  • Zhehui Luo

  • Tim Bruckner

  • September 26, 2025

  • 0 min

Share

Objective:

To quantify the individual-level impact of the expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) monthly payments on birth outcomes, specifically small for gestational age (SGA) and low birth weight (LBW), controlling for various factors.

Key Findings:
  • A $1000 increase in total pregnancy CTC was associated with a 0.72 percentage point decrease in SGA (95% CI, −0.74 to −0.70).
  • A $1000 increase in total pregnancy CTC was associated with a 0.49 percentage point decrease in LBW (95% CI, −0.50 to −0.47).
  • The decreases in SGA and LBW correspond to 6.7% and 8.2% reductions, respectively.
  • The association was strongest among non-Hispanic White individuals and weakest among foreign-born Hispanic individuals.
Interpretation:

Cash transfers during pregnancy are linked to moderate declines in adverse birth outcomes, supporting the hypothesis that increased income can improve maternal and infant health.

Limitations:
  • The study may not account for all potential confounding factors, including unmeasured demographic characteristics that could influence results.
  • Results may vary based on demographic characteristics not fully explored.
Conclusion:

The findings suggest that monthly cash transfers can positively influence birth outcomes, highlighting the importance of financial support during pregnancy.

Original Source(s)

Related Content