Temporal trends and disparities in heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the United States (1999–2024): a CDC WONDER analysis
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By
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Hassaan Abid
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Gaaitri Lohano
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Muhammad Vazaym
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Muhammad Jawad
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Rimsha Adnan
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Muhammad Mohid Haroon
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June 24, 2026
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Objective:
To evaluate national trends in heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2024.
Approach:
- Data Source: Retrospective analysis using the CDC WONDER Multiple Cause-of-Death database.
- Population: Adults aged ≥25 years with heat-related conditions (ICD-10 code T67) and circulatory system diseases (ICD-10 codes I00–I99).
- Analysis Method: Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) calculated; temporal trends analyzed using Joinpoint regression.
Key Findings:
- A total of 10,731 deaths were identified from heat-related cardiovascular conditions.
- Mortality declined significantly from 1999 to 2004, followed by variable trends.
- A sharp and statistically significant increase in mortality was observed from 2015 to 2024 (APC: 17.58%; p < 0.001).
- Males demonstrated a significant overall increase in mortality (AAPC: 3.64%; p = 0.034).
- Hispanic populations exhibited the most pronounced recent increases in mortality.
- The highest burden of mortality was observed in the Western and Southern United States.
Interpretation:
Heat-related cardiovascular mortality has increased significantly in recent years, with notable demographic and geographic disparities.
Limitations:
- Analysis limited to adults aged ≥25 years.
- Data on race and ethnicity restricted to certain groups due to reliability concerns.
Conclusion:
The study highlights the increasing impact of climate-related heat exposure on cardiovascular mortality.