Objective:

To assess the trends of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in China and globally, extract epidemiological characteristics, and predict the burden in 2030.

Approach:

• Data Collection: Data on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ASD from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.
• Statistical Analysis: The Join-point regression model was used to analyze changes in the disease burden of ASD over time, and the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the trend by 2030.

Key Findings:

• From 1990 to 2021, China's age-standardised prevalence and age-standardised DALYs rate of ASD were lower than the global average.
• China's average annual percentage change (AAPC) for prevalence was 0.22% and for DALYs was 0.23%, both higher than global averages.
• By 2030, the projected age-standardised prevalence of ASD in China is 660.28 per 100,000 and DALYs rate is 126.66 per 100,000, compared to global levels of 793.01 per 100,000 and 147.43 per 100,000.

Interpretation:

There is a strong positive correlation between age-standardised prevalence and DALYs rate of ASD and sociodemographic index (SDI) across most countries, indicating an upward trajectory of ASD's health impact over the past three decades.

Limitations:

• The study relies on data from the Global Burden of Disease database, which may have limitations in data accuracy and completeness.
• Future projections are based on statistical models that may not account for all variables influencing ASD prevalence and burden.

Conclusion:

The findings highlight the increasing disease burden of ASD in China, emphasizing the need for targeted prevention and control measures, particularly among high-risk groups.