Tree Canopy Gains Linked to Lower Mortality - Summary - MDSpire
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Tree Canopy Gains Linked to Lower Mortality

The association was most pronounced in Chicago’s hottest neighborhoods, where canopy losses were linked to higher predicted mortality.

  • By

  • Teraya Smith

  • August 11, 2026

  • 3 min

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Objective:

To investigate the association between year-to-year increases in urban tree canopy and mortality rates in Chicago neighborhoods.

Approach:
  • Study Design: An 11-year longitudinal study analyzing annual data from 801 Chicago census tracts between 2011 and 2021.
  • Data Sources: Integrated US Department of Agriculture tree canopy estimates, summer maximum temperatures, mortality records, nitrogen dioxide concentrations, and neighborhood demographic characteristics.
  • Population: Included 220,711 deaths and adjusted for population size, income, neighborhood characteristics, air pollution, and regional differences.
  • Statistical Analysis: Examined associations between tree canopy and mortality, interactions with heat exposure, and used K-means clustering for neighborhood patterns.
Key Findings:
  • Year-to-year increases in tree canopy were associated with approximately 10% lower all-cause mortality for each 1% increase.
  • Similar associations were found for cardiovascular, respiratory, mental health, and selected musculoskeletal causes of death.
  • Existing tree canopy levels were not significantly associated with all-cause mortality.
  • Greater canopy losses in hotter neighborhoods correlated with higher predicted mortality.
  • A hypothetical annual 0.03% citywide increase in tree canopy could correspond to about 105 fewer deaths per year.
Interpretation:

Limitations:
  • The study could not establish causality.
  • Lacked information on how long decedents lived at their recorded addresses.
  • 30-m resolution canopy data may have missed smaller or newly planted trees.
  • Residual area-level confounding could not be excluded.
Conclusion:

The findings indicate an association between increasing urban tree canopy and lower mortality rates, particularly in areas with higher temperatures.

Sources:

Original Source(s)

Tree Canopy Gains Linked to Lower Mortality

  • by Teraya Smith

  • August 11, 2026

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