To investigate the association between year-to-year increases in urban tree canopy and mortality rates in Chicago neighborhoods.
Approach:
Study Design: An 11-year longitudinal study analyzing annual data from 801 Chicago census tracts between 2011 and 2021.
Data Sources: Integrated US Department of Agriculture tree canopy estimates, summer maximum temperatures, mortality records, nitrogen dioxide concentrations, and neighborhood demographic characteristics.
Population: Included 220,711 deaths and adjusted for population size, income, neighborhood characteristics, air pollution, and regional differences.
Statistical Analysis: Examined associations between tree canopy and mortality, interactions with heat exposure, and used K-means clustering for neighborhood patterns.
Key Findings:
Year-to-year increases in tree canopy were associated with approximately 10% lower all-cause mortality for each 1% increase.
Similar associations were found for cardiovascular, respiratory, mental health, and selected musculoskeletal causes of death.
Existing tree canopy levels were not significantly associated with all-cause mortality.
Greater canopy losses in hotter neighborhoods correlated with higher predicted mortality.
A hypothetical annual 0.03% citywide increase in tree canopy could correspond to about 105 fewer deaths per year.
Interpretation:
Limitations:
The study could not establish causality.
Lacked information on how long decedents lived at their recorded addresses.
30-m resolution canopy data may have missed smaller or newly planted trees.
Residual area-level confounding could not be excluded.
Conclusion:
The findings indicate an association between increasing urban tree canopy and lower mortality rates, particularly in areas with higher temperatures.
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