To project the future burden of radiation-induced cancers associated with computed tomography (CT) imaging in the US.
Key Findings:
Projected 103,000 future radiation-induced cancers from CT imaging in 2023, significantly higher than previous estimates, based on modeled data.
93 million CT examinations performed in 2023, with 3.1 million in pediatric patients.
Adult imaging accounted for the majority of projected cancers (93,000 cases).
Lung cancer was the most common projected type, followed by colon cancer and leukemia.
Multiphase scanning contributed significantly to projected cancer risk.
Interpretation:
The findings indicate a substantial future cancer burden linked to CT imaging, emphasizing the need for careful justification and optimization of CT use while balancing clinical value.
Limitations:
Estimates are based on modeled data rather than observed outcomes, relying on models derived from Japanese atomic bomb survivor data.
Risk models may not fully reflect the effects of repeated low-dose x-ray exposure in contemporary patients.
Conclusion:
The study underscores the importance of optimizing CT imaging practices to mitigate potential harm while recognizing the clinical value of necessary examinations.
