Construction of a nomogram model to predict arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers: insights from a cohort study - Summary - MDSpire

Construction of a nomogram model to predict arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers: insights from a cohort study

  • By

  • Wenxing Gao

  • Yue Zhang

  • Xulei Tang

  • Li Yan

  • Zuojie Luo

  • Guijun Qin

  • Lulu Chen

  • Qin Wan

  • Zhengnan Gao

  • Weiqing Wang

  • Guang Ning

  • Yiming Mu

  • June 19, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To create and verify a tool for forecasting arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly individuals within the community, including its validation.

Approach:
    Key Findings:
    • 41.0% of subjects were diagnosed with arteriosclerosis over an average follow-up of 3.25 years, defined as baPWV ≥ 1400 cm/s.
    • Independent risk factors identified include age, BMI, hypertension, triglyceride levels, glycosylated hemoglobin, sex, and fasting blood glucose.
    • The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.811 for the derivation cohort and 0.816 for the validation cohort.
    Interpretation:

    The predictive model may assist in identifying arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly individuals, aiding in early detection and intervention.

    Limitations:
    • The study was limited to community settings and may not be generalizable to other populations.
    • The follow-up duration and sample size may affect the robustness of the findings.
    Conclusion:

    The predictive model established in this study holds promise for identifying arteriosclerosis in middle-aged and elderly individuals.

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