Mortality trends and disparities in older U.S. adults with atrial fibrillation and COPD: a 1999–2020 CDC WONDER analysis with forecast to 2030 - Summary - MDSpire

Mortality trends and disparities in older U.S. adults with atrial fibrillation and COPD: a 1999–2020 CDC WONDER analysis with forecast to 2030

  • By

  • Xiao-Bin Zheng

  • Bing-Qi Yao

  • Ming Zhang

  • Shu-Xian Hou

  • Hai-Yan Wu

  • June 23, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To examine mortality trends and disparities among U.S. adults aged 65 and older affected by both atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from 1999 to 2020.

Approach:
    Key Findings:
    • Total of 399,413 deaths recorded from 1999 to 2020.
    • AAMR increased from 27.39 in 1999 to 65.29 in 2020, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 4.21 (95% CI: 3.75–4.68).
    • Men had a higher AAMR (57.01) than women (34.96).
    • Non-Hispanic White individuals had an AAMR 2.8 times higher than Hispanics.
    • Non-metropolitan areas had a higher AAMR than metropolitan areas.
    • Leading causes of death included COPD, ischemic heart disease, and cancer, with a shift in the most common place of death from medical facilities to home by 2020.
    • Projections suggest the AAMR will reach 92.62 by 2030, particularly in individuals aged ≥85.
    Interpretation:

    Mortality involving coexisting AF and COPD in older adults has increased over the past two decades, with notable disparities across sex, race, and geography.

    Limitations:
    • The study is based on death certificate data, which may have limitations in accuracy and completeness.
    • The analysis is confined to older adults (aged 65 and older), which may not represent trends in younger populations.
    Conclusion:

    Mortality rates for older adults with AF and COPD are projected to continue increasing, highlighting the need for targeted interventions in high-risk populations.

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