Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting axillary reverse mapping lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients - Summary - MDSpire

Creation and assessment of a nomogram for forecasting lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients undergoing axillary reverse mapping

  • By

  • Xiaoli Kong

  • Fanchao Xu

  • Yiran Liang

  • Xiaoyan Li

  • Tingting Ma

  • Liyu Jiang

  • Qifeng Yang

  • July 21, 2026

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Objective:

To identify independent predictors of metastasis in ARM lymph nodes and to develop and validate a preoperative nomogram for predicting the risk of metastasis in breast cancer patients.

Approach:
  • Patient Cohorts: A retrospective analysis was conducted on a development cohort of 142 breast cancer patients and an independent validation cohort of 54 patients.
  • Mapping Technique: Indocyanine green and methylene blue were used to map lymphatic drainage during surgery.
  • Statistical Analysis: Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of metastasis.
  • Nomogram Development: A preoperative nomogram was developed and validated based on identified predictors.
Key Findings:
  • ARM lymph nodes were identified in 92.81% of patients, with a metastasis rate of 23.24%.
  • Independent predictors of metastasis included menarche age ≤ 12 years, elevated fibrinogen, elevated CA15-3, elevated platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, presence of sentinel ARM lymph nodes, larger ARM lymph node long diameter, and ultrasound-detected axillary abnormalities.
  • The nomogram showed excellent discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.934) and acceptable discrimination in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.826).
Interpretation:

The developed nomogram predicts the risk of ARM lymph node metastasis.

Limitations:
  • The study is retrospective and may have inherent biases.
  • The sample size for the validation cohort was relatively small.
Conclusion:

The preoperative nomogram supports selective ARM node preservation.

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