Volatility priors may reveal delusion severity in schizophrenia

Expectations of environmental instability declined alongside delusional symptoms during 6 months following an acute psychotic episode.

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Elevated expectations of environmental volatility tracked greater delusion severity over 6 months in schizophrenia-spectrum disorder patients.
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The study followed 75 patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and 71 nonclinical participants over a 6-month period.
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Higher volatility priors were associated with greater clinician-rated delusion severity and remained elevated compared to nonclinical participants.
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Delusions and paranoia remained elevated at the end of follow-up, with volatility priors decreasing but still higher than in the comparison group.
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The findings suggest volatility priors may represent a cognitive mechanism related to delusions, but their state-trait nature remains unclear.

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