Development and validation of a risk stratification model for cardiovascular disease in patients with radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA): a retrospective study

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A risk assessment model for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA) patients was developed using routine clinical variables.
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The study identified four independent predictors of CVD risk: age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels.
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The model demonstrated excellent discriminative ability in the training set with an AUC of 0.888 and acceptable performance in the validation set with an AUC of 0.741.
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Calibration of the model was satisfactory, indicated by a Brier score of 0.115, and decision curve analysis confirmed its clinical utility.
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External validation in prospective cohorts is necessary before the clinical implementation of this CVD risk stratification tool for r-axSpA patients.

Frontiers In Medicine

by Ting Tan, Minglun Xiao, Liang Zhou, Zhongqun Wen, Xinyi Hu, Yuanjun Zheng, Zeyan Peng
June 8, 2026

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