Testing the 40% to 60% Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Heuristic: A Meta-Analysis - Takeaways - MDSpire
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Evaluating the Common 40%–60% Estimate of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness: A Meta-Analysis

  • By

  • Matthew D. Wolpert

  • Yuanyuan Liang

  • Meagan C. Fitzpatrick

  • Justin R. Ortiz

  • November 10, 2026

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  • 1

    This meta-analysis combined 18 Flu VE Network estimates from 2004-2005 through 2023-2024, representing 96,335 participants.

  • 2

    Pooled influenza vaccine effectiveness across seasons was 41.3% (95% CI, 35.6%-46.5%), with substantial between-season heterogeneity (I2 = 82.8%).

  • 3

    Season-specific vaccine effectiveness ranged from 10% to 60%; 9 of 18 estimates were below 40%, and none exceeded 60%.

  • 4

    Pooled effectiveness was 36.2% in seasons with reported antigenic mismatch and 50.4% in seasons without reported mismatch (P = .001).

  • 5

    The 95% prediction interval for vaccine effectiveness in a subsequent season was 15.6% to 59.3%, indicating substantial variation across seasons.

Original Source(s)

Testing the 40% to 60% Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Heuristic: A Meta-Analysis

  • by Matthew D. Wolpert, Yuanyuan Liang, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Justin R. Ortiz

  • November 10, 2026

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