Response to: Methodological issues of paper about the 2025 measles outbreak in Mexico - Takeaways - MDSpire
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Addressing Methodological Concerns Regarding the 2025 Measles Outbreak Study in Mexico

  • By

  • Luis Omar Colombo-Mendoza

  • Julieta del Carmen Villalobos-Espinosa

  • Elías Beltrán-Naturi

  • July 18, 2026

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  • 1

    The authors acknowledge the correction regarding the use of posterior credibility intervals in their Bayesian framework.

  • 2

    The out-of-sample R² of −0.36 indicates poor predictive fit for the 2025 data point and performance worse than a horizontal mean line.

  • 3

    The term “severe regime shift” describes the 2025 outbreak as a drastic departure from the preceding 10-year trend.

  • 4

    Statistical models based on historical data assume continuity and cannot readily account for abrupt, targeted public health interventions.

  • 5

    Integrating predictive machine learning assessments with programmatic realities can support more effective public health policies addressing immunization gaps in Mexico.

Original Source(s)

Response to: Methodological issues of paper about the 2025 measles outbreak in Mexico

  • by Luis Omar Colombo-Mendoza, Julieta del Carmen Villalobos-Espinosa, Elías Beltrán-Naturi

  • July 18, 2026

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