Development and validation of a 24-h predictive model for hypertriglyceridemic moderately severe acute pancreatitis: a single-center retrospective study

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A risk prediction model was developed to identify patients with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis at risk of progressing to moderately severe acute pancreatitis.
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The study included 146 patients with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis admitted between January 2018 and December 2023.
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Independent risk factors for moderately severe acute pancreatitis included systemic inflammatory response syndrome and elevated triglyceride levels within 24 hours of admission.
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The prediction model demonstrated an area under the ROC curve of 0.909, with a sensitivity of 86.2% and specificity of 90.9% in the validation cohort.
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A 24-hour triglyceride level below 18.41 mmol/L indicates a lower risk of progression to moderately severe disease, but combined biochemical indicators are recommended.

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