Monthly trends, determinants, and forecasting of perinatal mortality in Ghana: a comparison of ARIMA, BPNN, DLNN, and GRNN models - Takeaways - MDSpire

Monthly trends, determinants, and forecasting of perinatal mortality in Ghana: a comparison of ARIMA, BPNN, DLNN, and GRNN models

  • By

  • Agyei Helena Lartey

  • Denis Dekugmen Yar

  • Ama Asamaniwa Attua

  • Godfred Nyanney

  • Akuffo Samuel Tete Manukure

  • Isaac Takyi Boahen

  • Theophilus Oduro Kankam

  • Collins Mawuli Bakudie

  • July 10, 2026

  • 0 min

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  • 1

    Ghana's perinatal mortality rate is estimated at 44.8 per 1,000 births, indicating significant challenges in maternal and newborn care.

  • 2

    The study analyzed 192 monthly observations from January 2010 to December 2025, focusing on perinatal mortality trends and influencing factors.

  • 3

    The overall perinatal mortality rate recorded was 24.98 per 1,000 births, with higher antenatal care coverage linked to lower mortality rates.

  • 4

    ARIMA emerged as the best-performing model for forecasting perinatal mortality, with a root mean square error of 11.74 on the 2025 holdout.

  • 5

    The study highlights the importance of monthly PMR surveillance for monitoring service quality and planning in maternity hospitals.

Original Source(s)

Monthly trends, determinants, and forecasting of perinatal mortality in Ghana: a comparison of ARIMA, BPNN, DLNN, and GRNN models

  • by Agyei Helena Lartey, Denis Dekugmen Yar, Ama Asamaniwa Attua, Godfred Nyanney, Akuffo Samuel Tete Manukure, Isaac Takyi Boahen, Theophilus Oduro Kankam, Collins Mawuli Bakudie

  • July 10, 2026

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